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Home»Articles»Inventory Control by Linear and Non Linear Demand Forecasting

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Asian Review of Mechanical Engineering (ARME)

Editor Dr. Nukman Bin Yusoff
Print ISSN : 2249 - 6289
Frequency : Half-Yearly

Inventory Control by Linear and Non Linear Demand Forecasting

Author : R. V. Patil and A. N. Chapgaon
Volume 6 No.2 July-December 2017 pp 19-26

Abstract

Now a day, supply chain practices are widely adopted in Indian industries .Research points out examination of success factors and implementations of the system in Indian industries. However, the adoption in Small and Medium Enterprises is not very common. Interestingly, multinational firms and large enterprises can invest huge capital for implementing latest information technology tools to share the information and carry day-to-day operations, but the investment and implementation is quite difficult for SMEs. This inspires us to investigate effect of new age supply chain technology like VMI practices in SMEs and other industries. VMI entails forecasting demand through joint efforts of customer and supplier, maintaining a targeted service level for customers, initiating and shipping supply orders, material control and customer order fulfillment.In this study, the results of adopting a partial vendor managed inventory practice, along with latest decision support tool like ANN, are presented. Outcomes of case study shows that deployment of vendor managed forecasting improves forecasting accuracy, reduces bullwhip, minimizes total supply chain cost, improves profits and most importantly improves customer satisfaction indexOverall five statistical models and five neural network models are adopted and compared. Study illustrates how a neural network aptly learns the case dynamics, and improves system performance. The results presented in this section demonstrates the effectiveness of the Focused Time Lagged Recurrent Neural Networks (FTLRNN) model compared to traditional and other neural network models. The significant finding of this research is results of forecasting error and other supply chain performance measures. Further study reveals that when we bracket the overstock and under stock cost in the supply chain cost, a forecast with minimum forecasting error may not lead to reduced supply chain cost or improved profits. This study also introduces a mixed model where the error obtained from statistical model is mixed with the forecast obtained by neural model and a new forecast is obtained. The analysis shows that the developed model could further improve supply chain performance in VMI setting.

Keywords

Decision support system (DSS)

Full Text:

References

Asian Review of Mechanical Engineering (ARME) is a half-yearly international peer-reviewed journal of Mechancial Engineering. One of the objectives of this journal is to disseminate knowledge on various research issues connected with the topics include, but are not limited to:

Statics and dynamics
Strength of materials and solid mechanics
Instrumentation and measurement
Thermodynamics, heat transfer, energy conversion, and HVAC
Combustion, automotive engines, fuels
Fluid mechanics and fluid dynamics
Mechanism design (including kinematics and dynamics)
Manufacturing engineering, technology, or processes
Hydraulics and pneumatics
Engineering design
Product design
Mechatronics and control theory
Material Engineering
Design engineering, Drafting, Computer-Aided Design (CAD) (including solid modeling), and Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAM)

Now a day, supply chain practices are widely adopted in Indian industries .Research points out examination of success factors and implementations of the system in Indian industries. However, the adoption in Small and Medium Enterprises is not very common. Interestingly, multinational firms and large enterprises can invest huge capital for implementing latest information technology tools to share the information and carry day-to-day operations, but the investment and implementation is quite difficult for SMEs. This inspires us to investigate effect of new age supply chain technology like VMI practices in SMEs and other industries. VMI entails forecasting demand through joint efforts of customer and supplier, maintaining a targeted service level for customers, initiating and shipping supply orders, material control and customer order fulfillment.In this study, the results of adopting a partial vendor managed inventory practice, along with latest decision support tool like ANN, are presented. Outcomes of case study shows that deployment of vendor managed forecasting improves forecasting accuracy, reduces bullwhip, minimizes total supply chain cost, improves profits and most importantly improves customer satisfaction indexOverall five statistical models and five neural network models are adopted and compared. Study illustrates how a neural network aptly learns the case dynamics, and improves system performance. The results presented in this section demonstrates the effectiveness of the Focused Time Lagged Recurrent Neural Networks (FTLRNN) model compared to traditional and other neural network models. The significant finding of this research is results of forecasting error and other supply chain performance measures. Further study reveals that when we bracket the overstock and under stock cost in the supply chain cost, a forecast with minimum forecasting error may not lead to reduced supply chain cost or improved profits. This study also introduces a mixed model where the error obtained from statistical model is mixed with the forecast obtained by neural model and a new forecast is obtained. The analysis shows that the developed model could further improve supply chain performance in VMI setting.

Editor-in-Chief
Dr. Nukman Bin Yusoff
Department Of Mechanical Engineering, University of Malaya, Malaysia
[email protected]
Editorial Advisory Board
Prof.Kevser Dincer
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Selçuk University, Turkey
[email protected]
Dr. Kazi Md. Salim Newaz
Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Malaya, Malaysia
[email protected]
Prof.H.P.S Abdul Khalil
School of Industrial Technology, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Malaysia
[email protected]
Dr. Ong Hwai Chyuan
Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Malaya, Malaysia
[email protected]
Prof.Parviz Malekzadeh
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Persian Gulf University, Iran
[email protected]
Dr. Mohd Faizul Bin Mohd Sabri
Department Of Mechanical Engineering, University of Malaya, Malaysia
[email protected]
Dr. Chong Wen Tong
Department Of Mechanical Engineering, University of Malaya, Malaysia
[email protected]
Dr. Mohd Ridha Bin Muhamad
Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Malaya, Malaysia
[email protected]
Dr. Khoo Shin Yee
Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Malaya, Malaysia
[email protected]
Dr. Chew Bee Teng
Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Malaya, Malaysia
[email protected]
Dr. Liew Haw Ling
Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Malaya, Malaysia
[email protected]

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    Editorial Note

    Editorial Dr. Nukman Bin Yusoff

    Editor-in-Chief
    Dr. Nukman Bin Yusoff
    Department Of Mechanical Engineering, University of Malaya, Malaysia
    [email protected]
    Editorial Advisory Board
    Prof.Kevser Dincer
    Department of Mechanical Engineering, Selçuk University, Turkey
    [email protected]
    Dr. Kazi Md. Salim Newaz
    Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Malaya, Malaysia
    [email protected]
    Prof.H.P.S Abdul Khalil
    School of Industrial Technology, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Malaysia
    [email protected]
    Dr. Ong Hwai Chyuan
    Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Malaya, Malaysia
    [email protected]
    Prof.Parviz Malekzadeh
    Department of Mechanical Engineering, Persian Gulf University, Iran
    [email protected]
    Dr. Mohd Faizul Bin Mohd Sabri
    Department Of Mechanical Engineering, University of Malaya, Malaysia
    [email protected]
    Dr. Chong Wen Tong
    Department Of Mechanical Engineering, University of Malaya, Malaysia
    [email protected]
    Dr. Mohd Ridha Bin Muhamad
    Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Malaya, Malaysia
    [email protected]
    Dr. Khoo Shin Yee
    Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Malaya, Malaysia
    [email protected]
    Dr. Chew Bee Teng
    Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Malaya, Malaysia
    [email protected]
    Dr. Liew Haw Ling
    Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Malaya, Malaysia
    [email protected]

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